In 2020, the world saw the worst economic crisis in 74 years because of Corona. The growth of the world's major economies has been negative, oil prices have come down to zero due to lower demand for oil in the global market, central banks have reduced interest rates to zero to support the economies.
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| world economy and corona impact in 2021? |
Tourism, airlines, hotels and other key sectors are on the brink of collapse due to lack of business due to Corona, the world's largest car rental and department stores closed by filing bank corruption and Corona with its second wave in the world in 2020 However, in December 2020, trials of 6 different vaccines were launched in the world, notably the American vaccine Pfizer and China's Sinopharm. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates have begun vaccinating their citizens, and it is hoped that 2021 will be a year of global caution and hope, based on the 10 economic forecasts for global economies in 2021. Due to the discovery and use of the corona virus vaccine, it is hoped that this vaccine will be given to people in many countries of the world in the first quarter of 2021. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have started vaccinating against corona. It would be premature to say that the vaccine will control the corona epidemic, but it is expected to significantly reduce and control the spread of corona, which will not require a complete lockdown. Some control of the second Corona epidemic will improve tourism, airlines and the hotel business, with positive growth forecast for 2021 instead of the negative 4.2% in 2020. In the Third World, the trend of investors and policy makers will shift from Corona to environmental social and corporate governance. The monetary policy of the fourth central banks is not expected to change. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue their policy of keeping the policy rates to a minimum and it is expected that the policy rates of the US, UK and Japan will be zero in 2021. Fifth, due to the economic crisis of 2020, bank corruption will be filed in 2021, which will increase unemployment and the risk of banks. Sixth, commodity prices will rise in 2021. In 2020, commodity prices had already risen. Seventh, the US economy will start to improve in the second half of 2021, but the second wave of corona in the United States, if locked down again, will affect US economic growth in 2021. However, the use of vaccines to control corona to a large extent It is possible. The eurozone's GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2021 after shrinking by 7.5% in 2020, but the pre-Corona economic situation is not expected until 2022. In 2021, the IMF forecasts 7.9% economic growth for China, the highest since 2013. Tenth, the US dollar is forecast to remain weak in 2021, which will increase the US trade deficit.
Readers! Now let's take a look at the economic situation in Pakistan. Fortunately, Pakistan is one of the few countries where economic activities continue in Corona. Our industrial production has recovered 95%. Our textile exports have increased by 7% in the last 6 months of the current financial year, remittances have reached 2 2.2 billion in November and our remittances are expected to reach a record 25 25 billion by the end of the financial year. During this period, the FBR has received more revenue than its target and a total of 3 million taxpayers have been registered till December 2020 as against 2.85 million last year. The number of tax return filers has also increased to 1.8 million while 300,000 taxpayers have applied for extension of the filing date. The country's foreign exchange reserves have also increased, with the SBP's foreign exchange reserves reaching 13 billion, while commercial banks' reserves rising to 7 7 billion, bringing the total to 20 billion. "Roshan Pakistan Digital Account" has received 200 200 million from abroad. I request Chairman FBR Javed Ghani and Member Inland Revenue Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq Ahmed to increase the holding tax rate on the markup received on the declared deposits of persons residing in Pakistan in Roshan Pakistan Digital Account as is the case for Pakistanis abroad. Do 10%.
In a recent tweet, the Prime Minister congratulated the country's current account for being in surplus for the fifth time in a row and for increasing the surplus and foreign exchange reserves to 1.6 billion this fiscal year as compared to the 1. 1.7 billion deficit last fiscal year. Finally, as an economics student, I predict Pakistan's economic growth of 2 to 2.5 percent, inflation of 7 to 8 percent and SBP's policy rate of 7 to 8 percent in 2021, while revival in the construction sector will lead to cement and steel sectors. Due to the rapid growth of corona in India and other countries in the region, the transfer of textile orders to Pakistan is expected to increase domestic exports. May the year 2021 prove to be a year of salvation and economic recovery for all of us. Amen.