At the onset of the epidemic, it was expected that its spread would decrease when the weather warms up. But in the outside world, the rate did not decrease much in the summer. However, the relationship between weather and cowd nineteen is still a science. This is the reason why it has been said for some time that with the onset of winter, there may be a significant increase in the number of people suffering from cold.
The relationship between the weather and the Cowboys
The fact is that the relationship between the weather and Covid Nineteen is quite different, because the temperature has affected the duration of the presence of corona virus on different objects. Whether it is hot or cold outside the walls, the transmission of the virus from one person to another depends almost entirely on human behavior. Research published in the medical journal, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, says that weather The effects of are rare, but other factors are more important.
The study defined weather as a "proportional temperature" that combines humidity and temperature. In the light of this study, experts analyzed that the rate in different coun
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| How does weather affect Covid19? |
tries, including the United States, from March to July 2020.
The role of human behavior
.Gone The results showed that the spread of the epidemic was negligible due to the effects of the weather, with less than 3% of cases reported. In contrast, human behavior played a significant role in its spread, accounting for 34% and 26% of cases, respectively. Caused by The other two main elements are population and urban density, which account for 23% and 13%, respectively.
The researchers said that they do not think that weather and environment are the root of the problem, in fact we should take personal precautions and take care of other factors. According to him, the results of the relationship between the corona virus and the weather are based on laboratory research reports.
On the other hand, some experts say that winter epidemics can intensify, especially in areas where the situation is not already under control. According to David Relman of Stanford University in the United States, "the virus is about to rejuvenate and we have difficulty." May face months.
Corona's new wave and the world panting for vaccines
What does the evidence say?
According to experts, the rate of various viruses that cause respiratory diseases, including influenza and pre-activated corona viruses, increases in winter and decreases in summer. According to medical experts, it would be premature to say The weather will gradually change, but there is growing evidence that the effects of the winter weather could lead to more large-scale cases.
According to Mauricio Santillana, an expert who specializes in disease transmission models at Harvard Medical School, people spend most of their time in the cold, surrounded by walls, with poor air drainage, which increases the risk of virus transmission.
According to Princeton University expert Raquel Baker, even a mild weather effect could increase the risk of illness for a large number of people. However, it is important to take precautions during this season, such as social distance and wearing face masks.
According to experts, seasonal effects are a combination of a number of factors, including the behavior of people and the characteristics of the virus, such as dislike of hot and humid weather. Laboratory experiments show that novel Cold and dry weather is ideal for corona virus, especially with direct sunlight. For example, artificial ultraviolet rays can neutralize new corona virus particles in the ground and air.
Similarly, in temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius and more humid weather, the virus becomes inactive on the surface much faster. In winter, people heat their homes with heaters or other means, and in a much better way as the air dries. According to Dylan Morris, an expert at Princeton University, "the environment inside the enclosure in winter is quite conducive to the stabilization of the virus."
Research on the effects of climate change
Researchers usually look at a single location several times a year for several years in different seasons to see if there is a decrease in the rate of spread of a particular virus in different seasons. But this time it is not because the coronavirus spreads. Not even a year now Research is underway into the effects of wind and weather.
A study published last month examined the rate of cases of the new corona virus during the first four months of the year, until precautionary measures or lockdowns were implemented in most countries. But the rate of cases increased very fast where there was less sunlight.
Therefore, the researchers predicted that if precautions were not taken, the rate of cases would decrease in summer and it would rise in winter. Researchers said that it is possible to reduce this risk dramatically, but it depends on the people. Will be on the behavior of.
According to Francis Cohenca, an expert at the University of Barcelona in Spain, testing rates at the onset of the epidemic were very limited and the tests were unreliable, so it is still impossible to determine the effect of the weather on the spread of the virus.
In this endeavor, he and his colleagues developed a model for the increase and decrease of disease rates in New York City over several years, taking into account seasonal effects and other precautions, and attempting to determine conditions without it. He discovered that even the slightest effect of the weather could lead to a significant increase in the epidemic, especially if precautionary measures were limited to the prevention of the virus.
The results of their study were published on September 10, and researchers indicated that strict precautionary measures would have to be taken to reduce the risk of an epidemic during the winter.
According to Kathleen O'Reilly, an expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the flu has been around us for hundreds of years and its specific mechanism, why it is so prevalent in winter, is still not well understood. It is thought that over time, the effects of the weather will be significant in determining the spread of the disease, as more and more people become immune to the virus. According to Raquel Baker, if people get the vaccine, it will take five years or so. This may take a little longer.
The virus has become more dangerous than ever
The study, published in the medical journal Journal of Bio, called the mutation in the corona virus D614G, a spike protein that helps the virus enter human cells. This mutation in the virus is a natural process that involves genetic changes in the virus and increases the pressure on our immune system. Research has shown that this type of virus was discovered in about 100 percent of Houston patients during the first wave of corona virus. Was, but in the second wave the rate reached ninety-nine percent.
In July, a study based on more than 28,000 genome sequences discovered the types of corona virus that contained the D614G mutation and it was found worldwide. The question then arose as to how these types of viruses left others behind. The answer was that they were more contagious.
A study of more than 25,000 genome sequences in the UK found that viruses with this mutation move from one species to another faster than other species and cause more cases in one place. Helps spread more easily, but not all scientists at the time were convinced. He said there could be other explanations, such as the D614G mutation common in the first viruses to reach Europe and the United States. Which would have given other types a chance to move forward.
In a study conducted at the University of Texas, laboratory experiments showed that such a mutation allowed spike proteins to attack this antibody in humans, which is responsible for immunity against this new corona virus. This gives the new strain of the virus the ability to break down the immune system more easily. However, the researchers did not know all the details. However, the researchers said that this change in the spike protein is very rare. And of course, the severity of the disease is not very serious in the affected people.
He said he had not seen viruses that could attack vaccines and antibodies. He said the virus was constantly changing, and efforts such as real-time surveillance were a step towards global vaccines and treatment. Will be able to put forward.
Fear of more than two, three waves
Dr. Michael Osterhall, a well-known epidemiologist in the United States and director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in June that the virus was like a wildfire and that corona virus cases would be reported in the country for a long time. As a result, people will be hospitalized and there will be deaths.
In April, Dr. Michael, with the help of colleagues, reported on a model of influenza epidemics to understand the Corona virus epidemic.
Waiting for the vaccine
There has been a lot of positive progress in recent weeks in the development of vaccines that help prevent the corona virus, and several pharmaceutical companies have released experimental results. One vaccine has been reported to be up to 95% effective, but still It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post.
But the reality is that this may not be possible, as the relevant agencies will want to make a profit after spending billions of dollars on vaccine development. In doing so, they could enlist the help of the United States, which has violated international proprietary rights anyway. It seems that free vaccines may not be available.
Will the vaccine alone solve the problem?
On the other hand, the American biotechnology company Moderina has claimed that according to the preliminary results of clinical trials, its Corona vaccine is 94.5% effective. The head of the World Health Organization has said that initially the supply of vaccines will be limited and priority will be given to health workers, the elderly and those at risk of coronavirus.
He hopes the vaccine will reduce the number of deaths and enable the health system to control the epidemic. However, Dr Tedros Adhanom warned that the coronavirus could still spread. This will require monitoring, testing, isolation of infected people, and monitoring of people who have been infected with the corona virus.
According to a report, scientists have warned the British ministers that the first vaccine for corona virus can only reduce the symptoms, however, it is unlikely that this vaccine can save people from the disease. Medical Officer Chris Whitty had previously said that it was unlikely that the first vaccine for corona virus would save everyone. However, the initial vaccine could reduce the risk of serious illness and even death in sensitive groups.
Many experts believe that the vaccine will reduce the force of the virus, reduce its damage, but will not eradicate the virus. They cite the example of influenza and its viruses that have been around for years. Coming and not over. They are being controlled by the use of vaccines. This is life, we have to spend the next few days thinking about it.
Difficulties in the cost, supply and storage of vaccines
The vaccine, introduced by Pfizer and BioNTech, can be stored for up to six months and requires a temperature of minus 70 degrees Celsius. Moderina vaccines can be stored at temperatures as low as minus 20 degrees, which is usually the freezer temperature.
storage time is 6 months. Vaccines from Oxford University and AstraZeneca can be stored at room temperature in the refrigerator. This means that it will be easier to deliver these vaccines to any corner of the world.
According to the British newspaper The Guardian, the price of a dose of modern vaccine in the summer was 37 US dollars. Johnson & Johnson has fixed the price of a dose of the vaccine at 10 dollars. Pfizer estimates twenty dollars, Oxford University and AstraZeneca about four dollars.
The biggest problem right now with the vaccine is how it will be possible to supply it to poor countries. In the face of such fears, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the G20 summit that he Riyadh is a supporter of the Vaccine Summit project. The supply of Corona vaccine is essential for all. Russia is ready to provide the vaccine to poor countries.
Earlier, China had signed an agreement on the distribution of corona vaccine to developing countries in the future. Earlier, the Chinese Foreign Ministry had said that China has joined the vaccine platform developed for vaccine development and that the Chinese vaccine will be provided to developing countries on a priority basis.
In the United States, it is hoped that the vaccination process will begin in early December. According to a senior US Department of Health official, the department intends to deliver the vaccine within 24 hours as soon as permission is granted. ۔
The US pharmaceutical company Pfizer has asked US health officials for permission to use the vaccine in an emergency. The US Food and Drug Administration will meet on December 10 to approve the use of the vaccine. Vaccination is likely to begin there on December 11 or 12.